The numbers remain tentative and are expected to change as the budget season progresses, but for now, Arlington public schools face a shortfall of $6.8 million. That could mean laying off as many as 107 employees, which could mean class sizes of 30.

"A staggering number" is the phrase interim Superintendent Kathleen Bodie used to characterize the new figures, while emphasizing that reductions she outlined to the School Committee on Tuesday, Jan. 12, are "broad strokes." Bodie offered these gloomy numbers:

Current revenue projections total $40.8 million, but salaries and expenses are forecast at $48.4 million. Reduce that larger number by $900,000 in offsetting revenue, the resulting $6.8 million shortfall leads to these possible losses:

* Elementary schools: 40 to 45 full-time equivalent positions ($2.5 million)

* Arlington High School: 20 to 25 full-time equivalent positions ($1.25 million)

* Ottoson: 20 to 25 full-time equivalent positions ($1.25 million)

* Special education: 10 to 12 full-time equivalent positions ($600,000)

Other cuts:

* Teaching assistants: $400,000

* Administration (non-special education): $100,000

* All crossing guards: $250,000

* Elementary administrative assistants: $70,000

* Secretarial: $30,000

* Textbooks: $80,000

* Professional development: $70,000

* Custodians: $100,000

Illustrating the fast-changing numbers, a front-page Boston Globe story on Jan. 13 reported an expected 21 elementary teachers cut here; that is the old forecast.

At the Dec. 22 School Committee, the fiscal 2011 budget shortfall was reported at $2.6 million.

"This is a town issue, not just a school department issue," Bodie said.

"I wake up in the middle of the night in a cold sweat thinking of the job lost," said the schools' chief financial officer, Diane Johnson.

All School Committee members weighed in with comments. Among them, Denise Burns held up a hand-drawn sketch labeled "Trajectory of Tragedy," showing how unfunded mandates from the state and federal governments are squeezing local school funding.

Member Cindy Starks said that, to her, the numbers mean "we must be considering an override." She said she is not "willing to sacrifice 4,500 kids."

Bodie and Johnson provided background about why the budget forecast worsened. Bodie provided these points:

-- With $500,000 less for circuit breaker reimbursements in fiscal 2010, this revenue could go to zero in fiscal 2011. That's an expected loss of $1.3 million.

-- The schools' special-education department was successful in bringing back "inhouse" this year 29 students who had been receiving expensive out-of-district services, yet higher costs offset those savings, spurred by other expensive services. Special-ed spending has averages 9 percent over the past 10 years, and it is expected to rise.

-- For fiscal 2011, revenue is expected to be down by 10 percent over the previous year.

-- U.S. stimulus funds, budgeted at $414,028 this year, are expected to be zero next year.

-- IDEA funds (stimulus money targeting special education) budgeted at $749,347 this year, may be zero next year, Bodie said.

-- A 12-percent drop in grants (Title I, kindergarten, Metco), which represents $3 million, Johnson said.

-- Expenses for transportation and facilities are expected to increase 7 percent. "It's important that we not get caught short," Johnson said.

 

In a related matter, the committee voted 5-1, with Curran voting no, to acknowledge the schools' bottom-line proposed budget for fiscal 2011 of $36,725,737. The vote came after a request from the Finance Committee.